Continued decline of private resale condo prices expected

2017 has arrived and the question on every property owner, seeker and investor’s mind may be how the year will fare for them. Will interest rates rise and how will that affect their financial sustainability? Will vacancy rate fall and will there be an increase in resale units hence affecting price competitiveness?

casabellaThe last couple of months of 2016 has shown a continued decrease in resale condo prices. In November, overall resale condominium prices have fallen 0.7 per cent, following a 0.2 per cent in October from September. While central region private non-landed residential properties have regained some favour with foreign buyers, prices have dipped despite a rise in sales volume. Property analysts are expecting a market stagnation at best for 2017 as a quick rebound seems unlikely due to the continued slow economic growth and global political uncertainty.

The increase in sales volume is however a sign of hope for the property sector, as the rate of price decline may cease after a period of increased activity. Most sellers who are listing their units under the current market conditions are more likely than not serious sellers as most investors will try to hold on to their units and tide over the market lull. Thus buyers are increasingly aware of this change in tide and are negotiating for lower prices.

seletar-springsThe segment most affected could be the small suburban condominium apartments as the number of resale units are on the rise and also facing competition from HDB flats. While official figures are yet to be computed, analysts are expecting private property prices to have fallen by approximately 3.5 per cent last year.

New private home sales figures on track for H4

Though there was a 31.4% fall from October’s record sales of 1,253 units, the year is nevertheless set to end on a cheerful note, as spirits in the new private home market are buoyed by a 13.3% year-on-year spike last month with developers selling 860 units in November alone (excluding the 250 new executive condominium units sold). The fourth quarter has clocked a 2,500-unit sales figure thus far and property analysts say the projected market figures are are on track as the year-end is usually a quieter time for the property sector.

parcriviera2Even before numbers for December are consolidated, the number of new homes sold this year have already crossed 7,769, which is already more than the total of 7,440 homes sold last year. The lowered private property prices have attracted a considerable market audience, with most going for units with lower quantum prices. Most buyers are hoping to score a good deal before prices bounce back up, and have shown interest in smaller one- and two-bedders. The demand for larger units are slightly lacking in comparison.

queenspeak2Units at the newly launched Queens Peak condominium development in Queenstown and Parc Riviera in West Coast Vale were the month’s best sellers. Most of the units sold were priced under $1 million with 185 such units sold at Queens Peak and 110 of the sme at Parc Riviera. A positive outlook on the private home market next year seems likely with a projected 8,000 number of new homes sold by end of 2016.

Resale private condo prices up by 0.3%

Resale private non-landed property prices have inched up slightly in November with a 0.3 per cent increase following a 0.7 per cent fall in October.

teresavilleHowever on a year-on-year comparison, prices were 1 per cent lower than November 2015. As more new units enter the market and demand wanes, more sellers have put their properties up for sale below estimated market values. In districts 22 and 27 of Boon Lay, Jurong, Tuas, Sembawang and Yishun, private condominium units have been sold at around $20,000 below the market norm.

But in district 4 which includes Mount Faber, Telok Blangah and Habourfront, condominium prices have been consistent with some buyers even paying up to $25,000 above market value. On a positive note, the margin between the market value and the average selling prices of resale condominiums have been narrowing, as more buyers get used to the stamp duty requirements and additional fees involved and are rather actively seeking good deals.

pebblebaySales volume of resale condo units has also improved 21.3 per cent from last November with the 581 transactions recorded for the month. In the prime districts, prices rose by 2.3 per cent while those in the city fringe dipped 1.5 per cent. Suburban resale private condos fared least well with a 2.6 per cent fall in prices. Analysts are watching the market closely for signs of how it will fare in 2017, and have raised concerns about prices possibly lowering further as more unsold homes seep into the market.

West Coast Vale and Serangoon Road sites to yield more new homes

The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) has just released a West Coast Vale residential site with a tender closing date of Feb 9 next year, on the back of positive response from 14 developers for a Margaret Drive site.

parcriviera2While property analysts are more prudent with their predictions of response from developers for this site, they are nevertheless expecting 5 to 10 bids. It’s location is perhaps not as ideal as the previously released  Margaret Drive and Martin Place sites, but this 99-year leasehold, 16,378 sq m site is situated near the Jurong Lake District and its many amenities such as office and commercial spaces and also shopping malls such as Westgate and Jem.

A recently launched project nearby is the 752-unit Parc Riviera condominium. Sales for this development has been muted thus far with 130 units sold at around $1,175 psf, but analysts are still expecting a winning bid of between $222.1 million to $246.8 million for this new West Coast Vale site. There are speculations that EL Development might go for the bid in order to manage pricing of new homes in the area.

sennett-residencesOn the private front, the Serangoon Road site on which the National Aerated Water Company sits has also been sold to Malaysia-listed developer Selangor Dredging for $47 million. Unknown to some, the National Aerated Water Company used to distribute popular nostalgic soda pops such as Sinalco and Kickapoo Joy Juice and this site used to house its bottling factory up to the 1990s when operations ceased. As the new owner is planning to convert this industrial site into a residential one which could potentially yield 117 apartment units, there is an additional fee of $22.66 million involved in the transaction. This could very well be a worthy investment as the site is close to the Potong Pasir MRT station and upcoming Bidadari HDB estate, in the increasingly popular city-fringe district 12.

525 potential new residential units near city fringe and nature reserve

hertford-collectionNear Little India and off Toh Tuck Road, the Urban Renewal Authority (URA) has released 2 residential sites that may culminate to a total of 525 private homes. Both sites are released under the Government Land Sales GLS) scheme and have 99-year leasehold tenures.

The first site off Perumal road near Farrer Park MRT station may be of particular interest to developers due to their city fringe location, proximity to a MRT station and its yet unfounded potential. The area is also close to the new medical hub off Farrer park and Novena. The tender for this site closes at noon on Jan 10 and is expected to fetch $280 to $295 million at $800 to $850 psf. The bids may come in strong as there has been a lack of new launches in the area for sometime now, which could mean buyers will be looking for something new to put their money in when the time is right.

connexion-farrer-parkThe only con for this site might be the proximity to the Sri Srinivasa Perumal Temple which could mean a higher noise level especially during festivals. But its location and depending on what other facilities or incentives the new property offers, may overcome all that.

Though the Toh Tuck Road is on the reserve list, should a developer be able to meet the minimum bid set by the authorities, it should still be able to fetch up to $225 million. This site is near the Bukit Batok Nature Reserve and Nature Park plus schools such as Pei Hwa Primary and Ngee Ann Polytechnic which could be rental fodder for expatriates or foreign students.

Chinese top buyers of Singaporean properties

Foreign interest in local properties have not waned despite rising prices and supply over the past half a decade. Their appetite have not diminished, if at all. Transactions may have shrunk slightly due to the additional costs involved in foreign-purchases of properties in Singapore, put in place by the series of property cooling curbs rolled out since 2011, but they buyers are back in the market in search of potential sites and units, in particular buyers from mainland China.

skyline-residencesIn a year-on-year comparison, foreign property transactions were up 11.8 per cent and this excludes purchases by permanent residents. Besides the Chinese, other major buyers hail from Malaysia, Indonesia and the United States. Each group have their preferences as the numbers show. Chinese buyers mostly favoured suburban properties while Malaysia and Indonesian buyers went for core central region units. 68 per cent of Indonesian buyers and 40 per cent to Malaysian buyers purchased homes in the prime districts while 58 per cent of transactions from the Chinese were for homes outside of the core central districts. Most Indonesia buyers are willing to pay $2,000 psf and above for prime properties while Chinese buyers usually went for properties priced between $750 to $1,700 psf.

Marina ONe iprop watermarkThe Additional Buyers’ Stamp Duty (ABSD) may have been a deterrent at one point in time, but as the government made clear that the measures are here to stay, acceptance is beginning to truly sink in and buyers are willing to spend the additional amounts in exchange for long-term capital gains. Buyers from the United States are exempt from the ABSD due to a free-trade agreement and this has raised the number of buyers up from 1.1 to 7.3 per cent over the past 5 years.

 

3 City fringe properties exchange hands for $190 million

3 residential properties in the city fringes – owned by 1 group of 3 investment holding firms and sold to 3 different developers fetching $190.5 million in total. Quite the sale, it seems. These 3 sites, situated in Grange Road, Cuscaden Walk and Hullet Road, were launched for sale in October for $185 million and from the interest it drew before the sale closed on November 2, developers and investors seem upbeat about the future of high-end luxury residential projects and serviced apartments or hospitality-based properties in Singapore.

urban-suitesThe luxury property market may have shrunk slightly in the past 3 to 4 years, but buyers are coming back into the market, after letting the effects of the additional buyers’ stamp duty sink in. Despite the authorities being unlikely to budge on the property cooling measures for now, interest is once again growing, with central region properties sales on the rise this last quarter.

The site on Hullet Road with a total strata area of 18,428 sq ft was sold to Hullet Development for $38.2 million. The consortium led by Mr Patrick Kho of Lian Huat Group have plans to build a high-end development in the site, leveraging on its location right in the centre of town. The biggest of the 3 sites on Cuscaden Walk with a land area of 21,560 sq ft, was bought by a consortium led by Sustained Land for $103.8 million. The other plot on Grange Road was purchased by Roxy-Pacific Holdings for $48.5 million.

boulevard-vueThese new sales may ultimately see the introduction of some choice luxury apartment units in and about town, by the time they are launched or built, the market may or may not provide a suitably soft landing for these new properties.

Property market slowdown reflected in stamp duty collected

In 2014, the property stamp duty assessed was at $4.11 billion. This year, the total amount for the period ending March 31 was 28 per cent lower at $2.96 billion. Property prices and transaction volume have also fallen since the peaks of 2009 and 2013.

TheOceanfrontThe real estate market here has hit a number of speed bumps over the past 3 to 4 years and with the various cooling measures in place, buyers and investors have shied away from this previously almost-surefire means of investment. Introduced almost 5 years in December 2011, the Additional Buyers’ Stamp Duty (ABSD) has gradually taken effect on the market, perhaps in particular the luxury property sector which used to attract mostly foreign investors. With the 15 per cent ABSD imposed on them, and 7 to 10 per cent on Singaporeans, many may have thought twice about buying a second or subsequent property as the additional monies to be paid are considerable.

Much of the ABSD assessed came from share transfer from bulk purchases by non-Singaporean entities or shareholders who may have to let go of unsold units before they are hit by the Qualifying Certificate (QC).

marinacollectionBut with the current financial and economic climate hazy at best, the future of other investment products fairly volatile, and local property prices having fallen to affordable quantum levels, could more buyers be picking off units to secure more stable future yields?