Will property market bottom out soon?

Hopes of a market rebound may be reignited as the bottom of the cycle seems to be in close reach. While private home prices have fallen by 0.4% for the 13th consecutive quarter, the rate of decline of private home prices have been reduced from the 1.5% in 2016’s Q3.

cairnhillresidencesIn 2016, private home prices fell only 3%, the slowest since 2013. Since the third quarter of 2013, home prices have fallen 11.2%, with a 4% fall in 2014 followed by a 3.75% fall in 2013. The projected fall in home value this year is 2% to 3%. While home seekers and investors may be drawn back into the market with the lowered property prices, analysts are not expecting them to splurge.

highlandresidencesIn Q4 of 2016, non-landed private home prices fell 0.7 per cent, led by city fringe properties with a 2 per cent drop. Prices of units in the core central region remained unchanged while suburban home prices fell 0.3 per cent. Units in the core central region have suffered a 1.9 per cent fall in Q3, thus the fact that sales volume have increased while prices remained unchanged could be a good sign for the year ahead.

Landed property prices posted a surprising rise of 0.9 per cent after a 2.7 per cent fall in Q3 while in the resale HDB flat market, prices fell 0.1 per cent.

Continued decline of private resale condo prices expected

2017 has arrived and the question on every property owner, seeker and investor’s mind may be how the year will fare for them. Will interest rates rise and how will that affect their financial sustainability? Will vacancy rate fall and will there be an increase in resale units hence affecting price competitiveness?

casabellaThe last couple of months of 2016 has shown a continued decrease in resale condo prices. In November, overall resale condominium prices have fallen 0.7 per cent, following a 0.2 per cent in October from September. While central region private non-landed residential properties have regained some favour with foreign buyers, prices have dipped despite a rise in sales volume. Property analysts are expecting a market stagnation at best for 2017 as a quick rebound seems unlikely due to the continued slow economic growth and global political uncertainty.

The increase in sales volume is however a sign of hope for the property sector, as the rate of price decline may cease after a period of increased activity. Most sellers who are listing their units under the current market conditions are more likely than not serious sellers as most investors will try to hold on to their units and tide over the market lull. Thus buyers are increasingly aware of this change in tide and are negotiating for lower prices.

seletar-springsThe segment most affected could be the small suburban condominium apartments as the number of resale units are on the rise and also facing competition from HDB flats. While official figures are yet to be computed, analysts are expecting private property prices to have fallen by approximately 3.5 per cent last year.

Luxury home market shows signs of revival

The luxury property segment has shown strengthening signs of revival these past few months as units at high-end residential developments such as Leedon Residence and Goodwood Residence have been picked up at an increased rate, even without discounts, deferrer payment schemes or incentives.

GoodwoodResidencesAbout 70 per cent of the sales at Goodwood Residence were from investment buyers and the average selling price was at $2,300 psf. The property situated in Bukit Timah is developed by Singapore-listed developer GuocoLand and all of it’s 3 penthouses and 210 units have been sold. The penthouses sized between 3,900 and 9,600 sq ft were sold for between $6.5 to $14.23 million.

Over at the 381-unit Leedon Residence, with variety of 2- to 5-bedroom units, more than three quarters of which have been sold. Prices here are considerable as well, with most units going for only slightly lesser than $2,000 psf. Some 5-bedders have been sold for between $8.5 to $10 million. The remaining 100 or so units may be picked up by a group in a bulk sale.

Leedon Residence on Holland Road.

Leedon Residence on Holland Road.

Property analysts are holding back their optimism for a market turnaround as they chalk most of the sales up to value-for-money deals from the sector. Due to a subdued market, more opportunities for investors have popped up and while transactions of non-landed homes with prices of $2,000 psf and above have increased by 80 per cent, most of these investors are not banking on quick or huge returns. They may however be willing to and are able to hold on to the units for when the market makes a comeback.

New private home sales figures on track for H4

Though there was a 31.4% fall from October’s record sales of 1,253 units, the year is nevertheless set to end on a cheerful note, as spirits in the new private home market are buoyed by a 13.3% year-on-year spike last month with developers selling 860 units in November alone (excluding the 250 new executive condominium units sold). The fourth quarter has clocked a 2,500-unit sales figure thus far and property analysts say the projected market figures are are on track as the year-end is usually a quieter time for the property sector.

parcriviera2Even before numbers for December are consolidated, the number of new homes sold this year have already crossed 7,769, which is already more than the total of 7,440 homes sold last year. The lowered private property prices have attracted a considerable market audience, with most going for units with lower quantum prices. Most buyers are hoping to score a good deal before prices bounce back up, and have shown interest in smaller one- and two-bedders. The demand for larger units are slightly lacking in comparison.

queenspeak2Units at the newly launched Queens Peak condominium development in Queenstown and Parc Riviera in West Coast Vale were the month’s best sellers. Most of the units sold were priced under $1 million with 185 such units sold at Queens Peak and 110 of the sme at Parc Riviera. A positive outlook on the private home market next year seems likely with a projected 8,000 number of new homes sold by end of 2016.

2017 to welcome more land supply

Recent tenders on land plots have received more than positive responses from developers, plus the inventory of unsold units have diminished. This may mean the authorities are likely to release more sites in 2017 to replenish land supply.

fd1a3ab7647f44a684a37926cd526cb6The government held back on land sales in the earlier part of 2016 when unsold stock ballooned. But as buyers slowly returned to the market, investors picked up bulk sales and developers closed en bloc deals, competition for available land have been obviously heating up in the past months. If land supply continues to diminish, developers may be forced to bid even more aggressively and thus push up private property prices, in particular in the executive condominium (EC) market.

Some of the highest-bid land sites this year included a Martin Place plot which went to First Bedok Land for $595.10 million, and a mixed residential and commercial plot with a winning bid of $301.16 million by Qingian Realty. A white site on Central Boulevard was also sold to Wealthy Link for $2,568.89 million in November. There were 11 sites on the Urban Redevelopment Authority’s (URA) reserve list in H2 of 2016, with possibly up to 15 more added to the list by H1 of 2017.

The Ministry of National Development (MND) will however be more selective about where the new sites will be released, likely avoiding areas where large amounts of unsold inventory remain such as Redhill and Commonwealth.

West Coast Vale and Serangoon Road sites to yield more new homes

The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) has just released a West Coast Vale residential site with a tender closing date of Feb 9 next year, on the back of positive response from 14 developers for a Margaret Drive site.

parcriviera2While property analysts are more prudent with their predictions of response from developers for this site, they are nevertheless expecting 5 to 10 bids. It’s location is perhaps not as ideal as the previously released  Margaret Drive and Martin Place sites, but this 99-year leasehold, 16,378 sq m site is situated near the Jurong Lake District and its many amenities such as office and commercial spaces and also shopping malls such as Westgate and Jem.

A recently launched project nearby is the 752-unit Parc Riviera condominium. Sales for this development has been muted thus far with 130 units sold at around $1,175 psf, but analysts are still expecting a winning bid of between $222.1 million to $246.8 million for this new West Coast Vale site. There are speculations that EL Development might go for the bid in order to manage pricing of new homes in the area.

sennett-residencesOn the private front, the Serangoon Road site on which the National Aerated Water Company sits has also been sold to Malaysia-listed developer Selangor Dredging for $47 million. Unknown to some, the National Aerated Water Company used to distribute popular nostalgic soda pops such as Sinalco and Kickapoo Joy Juice and this site used to house its bottling factory up to the 1990s when operations ceased. As the new owner is planning to convert this industrial site into a residential one which could potentially yield 117 apartment units, there is an additional fee of $22.66 million involved in the transaction. This could very well be a worthy investment as the site is close to the Potong Pasir MRT station and upcoming Bidadari HDB estate, in the increasingly popular city-fringe district 12.

Last GLS site of the year drew 14 bids

Perhaps because it was the last land plot for sale under the Government Land Sales (GLS) scheme for 2016, or that the 22,195 square metre site is situated near both the Commonwealth and Queesntown MRT stations in an area which has not seen new private home launches for awhile, but the latest Margaret Drive site saw an active bidding war between 14 developers with MCL Land lodging $238.38 million as the highest bidder.

queenspeakcondoThe highest bid is almost 8 per cent higher than the second highest of $220.9 million that came from Allgreen properties, and 14.5 per cent higher than the price of the land site on which Queens Peak condominium will stand. The site was originally on the Urban Redevelopment Authority’s (URA) reserve list but was triggered for sale when the minimum bidding price was met. A developer had originally committed to bid at least $184.758 million.

Commonwealth TowersCompared to the $483.2 million and $562.8 million previous wining bids on the neighbouring Commonwealth Towers and Queens Peak residential developments, the $238.39 million for this new site could yield 300 highly affordable units in the future. Property analysts deem the bullish bids as a sign that developers are keen to add new sites to their development lists, and truthfully, land is not easy to come by in this tiny island.

 

Chinese top buyers of Singaporean properties

Foreign interest in local properties have not waned despite rising prices and supply over the past half a decade. Their appetite have not diminished, if at all. Transactions may have shrunk slightly due to the additional costs involved in foreign-purchases of properties in Singapore, put in place by the series of property cooling curbs rolled out since 2011, but they buyers are back in the market in search of potential sites and units, in particular buyers from mainland China.

skyline-residencesIn a year-on-year comparison, foreign property transactions were up 11.8 per cent and this excludes purchases by permanent residents. Besides the Chinese, other major buyers hail from Malaysia, Indonesia and the United States. Each group have their preferences as the numbers show. Chinese buyers mostly favoured suburban properties while Malaysia and Indonesian buyers went for core central region units. 68 per cent of Indonesian buyers and 40 per cent to Malaysian buyers purchased homes in the prime districts while 58 per cent of transactions from the Chinese were for homes outside of the core central districts. Most Indonesia buyers are willing to pay $2,000 psf and above for prime properties while Chinese buyers usually went for properties priced between $750 to $1,700 psf.

Marina ONe iprop watermarkThe Additional Buyers’ Stamp Duty (ABSD) may have been a deterrent at one point in time, but as the government made clear that the measures are here to stay, acceptance is beginning to truly sink in and buyers are willing to spend the additional amounts in exchange for long-term capital gains. Buyers from the United States are exempt from the ABSD due to a free-trade agreement and this has raised the number of buyers up from 1.1 to 7.3 per cent over the past 5 years.