February’s dip in resale flat prices points to market stabilisation

February was a little slow for the resale HDB flat market as prices fell by 0.3% and transactions by 8.5%. This was following a promising start to the year. But industry experts are not too quick to dismiss the possibilities for the sector as the year moves ahead.

ClementiHDBflatThe slight dip last month was most likely due to the post Chinese New year lull which is a common occurence. Rather than being indicative of a falling resale flat market, the decline simply points at a stabilizing  market enironment. Though resale flat buyers paid about $2,000 less than market value across  the board, some HDB estates continued to clock more than 10 transactions and at prices above market value

In Bedok, some buyers paid $10,000 and more for their resale flats while in Clementi, some transactions closed at $4,000 above market value. That comes as no surprise as these are mature HDB estates where demand is high. There were also some recent private property launches in the vicinity, for example the Clement Canopy, which may have had some residual effect on the resale HDB  flat market.

Aerial view of HDB flats in Ang Mo Kio

Aerial view of HDB flats in Ang Mo Kio

There were however a couple of HDB towns which did not post as promising figures despite being popular locations for flat seekers. In Queenstown, the lowest below-market prices were clocked at $12,500,  followed by $10,000 in Ang Mo Kio. Prices of 3-room flats rose by 0.2% while executive flat prices fell by 1.7%. Overall, prices of resale flats in mature estates rose by 1.1%.

 

Fresh Start Housing Scheme helps families start afresh

A new Housing board programme has been rolled out last December to help families own a HDB flat.

fresh-start-housing_long

Photo credit: Ministry of National Development

Aptly named the Fresh Start Housing Scheme, it is aimed at helping families who have once lived in subsidised housing and are now living in rental flats. They can now apply for 2-room flexi flats with shorter leases of 45 to 65 years, which means they pay less than the usual 99-year leasehold HDB flats secured directly from the housing board.

These will be a boost for lower-income families or those wanting to move on and up from the rental schemes. But as these rare 2-room flexi units are also made available to singles and senior citizens, they are one of the most popular unit types in the board’s latest BTO (build-to-order) sales launch. 713 such 2-room units were put up for ballot and the subscription rate was almost four times that with 2,894 applicants. First-time home buyers are also allowed to apply for grants of up to $35,000.

PunggolBTOFlat

Photo credit: HDB

There are however clauses in the Fresh Start Housing Scheme that limit qualifying applicants. Households applying under this scheme must have at least 1 citizen parent, 1 citizen child under the age of 16 and at least 1 family member must have had a stable employment for the last 12 months. The Ministry of Social and Family Development will also need to assess applicants and they must not have accumulated more than 3 months in arrears on their rental units.

Resale HDB flat prices dip in January

Though resale HDB flat prices fell by 0.3 per cent in January and is 0.1 per cent lower in comparison with the same month last year, industry players remain confident of a stabilising market for the rest of the year.

PunggolHDBFlatResale flat prices have already fallen 11.2 per cent since its peak in 2013, though prior to that, prices have already risen considerably within 3 years. Straining from the continued price decline were the 5-room and executive flats segments, in which prices rose 0.4 and 0.9 per cent respectively. And again moving in the opposite direction, while 3-room and 4-room flat prices were expected to remain mostly flat, they have fallen 0.6 and 0.5 per cent respectively.

Resale flat prices in mature estates also fell 0.7 per cent, which comes as a little of a surprise since they have always maintained their demand despite falling numbers. Could the fall be due to the government ramping up the supply of new build-to-order (BTO) flats in mature estates over the past few years? Possibly. The trickle-down effect works just as well in both private and public property sectors.

BellewatersECAs the price gaps between private and public homes close, the pool of options for property buyers becomes bigger and while some HDB owners are holding on to their units in wait of better times, some may be forced to sell as they move on to their new BTO units or to private properties they are upgrading to. The increase in resale units may put some pressure on prices and sales volume. Already the volume of resale units have fallen 13.9 per cent from last December. Tampines and Geylang registered the highest number of resale transactions closed with above-market prices of $4000 and $5,500 respectively.

 

2017’s first BTO Launch expected to be over subscribed

Could it be a sign that the Housing Board’s first Build-to-order (BTO) launch this year was on Valentine’s Day and that this launch is also the first time families can apply under the Fresh Start Housing Scheme? Perhaps the parallels are pushing it, but the 4,065 new flats in Clementi, Tampines and Punggol will no doubt provide a good start for couples hoping to start a family.

CLementiHDBPhoto credit: HDB

Out of the 4000 plus units, 1,603 will be in Clementi, 638 in Tampines and 1,815 in Punggol. This latest launch will also feature a number of 2-room flexi units which are popular with singles who are now allowed to purchase selected flats directly from HDB, and senior citizens. In fact, these were the most heavily subscribed units in the current launch.

Units in Clementi are expected to garner the most interest, with its proximity to the upcoming Jurong Lake District and schools such as NUS High School of Math and Science, UniSIM, Ngee Ann Polytechnic and the National University of Singapore. Four-room flats in Clementi are expected to start at $432,000. In comparison, prices of 4-room HDB flats in Tampines are considered affordable considering its mature estate status with four-room flats starting at $299,000 (before grants are applied).

TampinesHDBPhoto credit: HDB

Application closes today and analysts are expecting a four to five times take-up rate for units in Clementi and Tampines while Punggol might be twice oversubscribed. There are 731 two-room flexi units offered in Punggol and the projected subscription for these units is 5 times that number. Despite it’s isolated locale, Punggol is growing to be a busy business and lifestyle cluster, and thus more appealing to singles and senior citizens choosing to live close to their married children.

Resale HDB flat market’s continued stabilisation

For 2 consecutive years now, the sales volume of resale HDB flats have been on the rise. Since 2014, the number of transactions recorded for resale HDB flats have been increasing, from 17,318 in 2014 to 19,306 in 2015 and then 20,813 last year.

ToaPayohHDBflatResale flat prices are showing signs of stabilisation, with only a 0.1 per cent fall in 2016 from the year before. Though last quarter’s transaction figures fell 9.1 per cent, it could be due to the usual year-end lull as most were away for the school holidays. Akin to buyers’ sentiments and reactions in the private property market, HDB flat buyers have also been increasingly keen on closing deals as prices have been falling steadily since 2013. Most consider the market currently nearing or at the bottom of the property cycle and are thus more confident or willing to make the purchase at what they consider lowest-possible prices.

Despite the government ramping up supply of new BTO (build-to-order) flats for young couples and families, even including singles in their bigger scheme of things by providing them the option to purchase 2-room units directly from HDB instead of previously restricting them to only units in the resale market, there are still those who will require a unit sooner rather than later or do not quite qualify for new flats. These buyers will be the ones who prop up the market, though with the current cooling measures still in place, prices are unlikely to rebound anytime soon.

ClementiHDBflatProperty analysts are however hopeful that the number of resale flats transacted this year will be closer to the 21,000 to 23,000 mark. Resale prices have fallen to a level at which young couple and families find attractive or affordable enough to commit. A large number of HDB flats and suburban condominiums will also reach completion this year, which could mean more HDB upgraders will be looking to sell their existing flat in the resale market. And as rents are expected to fall as well, for the same reasons, the most optimistic outlook could be a 1 to 2 per cent price increase by end 2017.

Plans for 6,000 new HDB units along East Coast Park

The new private condominium, Seaside Residences, and her sea views may have competition yet from the public housing sector in the form of new Build-to-order (BTO) flats along East Coast Park.

MarineParadeHDBflatThe authorities are looking at building 6,000 new BTO flats in the Bayshore district. The last public housing flats to be built here were in the 1970s – the current ones in Marine Parade which are wildly popular in the resale market likely for its proximity to many schools and the city centre, the sea views and the many transport options and amenities offered by this mature estate. With the upcoming Thomson-East Coast Line, properties in the area may become even more in demand with property buyers and investors. Resale HDB flats in Marine Parade have been known to fetch up to $900,000 in recent months.

In a 60 hectare plot bounded by Bayshore Road, East Coast Parkway, Bedok camp and Upper East Coast road, the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) has called for master plan pitches for the Bayshore district which will also include land area put aside for 6,500 private homes. The authorities are looking at developing the area into a residential, car-lite district. There has been concerns raised about the influx of population which might put a strain on transport networks, amenities and the Changi General Hospital in Simei. The future 12,500 new homes may possibly change the idyllic atmosphere this area is specifically known for.

Resale HDB market looking at a year of stabilisation

Transaction volume and prices of resale HDB flats dipped once more last month, following a rise in November. Prices of resale HDB units fell 0.3 per cent in December and 13.9 per cent fewer transactions were recorded in midst of the usual year-end quiet. A total of 1,364 resale flats were sold last month.

bishanloftecLarger units such as the executive flats and 5-room flats saw a bigger price decline of 0.9 and 1 per cent respectively. Prices of rarer 3-room and 4-room units dipped only 0.1 and 0.2 per cent. The steeper decline for the bigger flats could be due to declining private property prices, which may steer some buyers towards that direction. Smaller HDB flats are priced much lower than the same in the private property sector, thus the pool of buyers for these units are considerably more stable though now that singles can apply for 2-room flats directly from HDB, the pool could have diminished slightly.

5-roomhdbPrices of resale HDB units in non-mature estates fell the hardest at 1.2 per cent year on year, possibly due to competition from the rising number of private residences in the suburbs. In mature estates on the other hand, prices have risen 1 per cent. Overall, with prices fluctuation within the 1 to 2 per cent range, analysts consider the market stabilised after years of gradual decline since 2013. The market could be reaching a zero per cent change soon and with the current market levels remaining unchanged, buyers are beginning to take the opportunity to snap up units in the resale market when a suitable deal comes up. Resale transactions may rise up to 15 per cent this year.