Hougang goes private

Being a mature HDB estate means Hougang could be saturated in its housing and population. But this gungho town is certainly not satisfied to wait by the sidelines, in many ways. Real estate-wise, private properties are inserting themselves in a big way in this area made up of mainly HDB flats. Opening up the path for home buyers hoping to live in the HDB town, private properties are entering a market which has probably been long waiting for new players.

Riversails condominium.

Riversails condominium.

New projects in the area is expected to bring 2, 319 additions to the 12, 457 private homes already in the area. Current private condominiums and executive condominiums (ECs) include recent launches such as Boathouse Residences, Riversails, Parc Vera and Heron Bay. Prices of condo units in Hougang range from $840 to $920 psf, a considerably manageable entry-level pricing for upgraders and investors. Besides, R’ST Research director Ong Kah Seng considers the existing pool of HDB upgraders within the estate itself a ready audience for new properties. Nearby Punggol is establishing itself as a hub for waterfront living, but the buyers it attracts are mainly those from far-flung estates.

Resale home transactions within Hougang itself has been steady since Q3 of 2011. It has not gone above 200 units in a quarter, and this could be because the accessibility and availability of schools and amenities in its vicinity have kept residents close to home. Resale prices were also maintained at a $835 to $1,000 psf constant.

Midtown Residences at Hougang.

Midtown Residences at Hougang.

With the rise of popularity with mixed-use developments, its no wonder the latest Midtown Residences launch has appealed to investors. This project is situated near the Hougang MRT station and bus interchange and prices were sold at a premium of $1, 220 and $1, 660 psf. Although quite a bit higher than the average resale home prices of properties in the proximity, the location means units will command higher rents. Following in the footsteps of other mixed-use projects like Bedok Residences, Watertown and The Hiller, and perhaps also King Albert Park Residences, could it be the era of these multi-purpose commercial-residential developments?

The Battle of New and Resale ECs

Recent reports show that median prices of resale ECs have outperformed that of new executive condominiums. This is the first time resale EC prices have overtaken that of new EC units. Prices of executive condominiums across the board have risen over the past 2 1/2 years. Westmere EC in Jurong West has seen a rise of up to 40.6 per cent in median prices and Parc Oasis has increased 35.8 per cent in merely 2 years. There are 18 ECs in the whole of Singapore and 92,38 per cent of the 9,130 units available in the market has already been sold.

Parc Oasis condo in Jurong East

Parc Oasis condo in Jurong East

Surprising? Perhaps not. Property consultancy Jones Lang LaSalle proposes that the sheer number of new exec condo units being put up on sale in recent quarters have made pricing of new units more competitive. New units usually fetched a higher price as they had the maximum number of years left on the 99-year lease and everything came new and fresh.

What could be the reason for this recent takeover of interest on resale ECs? Location is the most likely factor. For example, Bishan Loft which is situated near the Bishan MRT station xceeded the $1,000 psf media price in Q1 this year. Another reason could be that new ECs cannot be sold until after the five-year minimum occupation period and thus have yet to enter the market.

Bishan Loft.

Bishan Loft.

Executive Condominiums (ECs) were a category of housing, a hybrid between private and public,  set up by the Government in 1996 to help the sandwiched class who neither qualified for public housing nor had sufficient money to enter the private property market. But perhaps the question we now need to consider is, where do the sandwiched class really lie? Can most of them now afford private, especially since there has been a considerable increase in the number of new units put on sale, and the line between private and executive condominiums are now sinking deeper and deeper into a grey pool or uncertainty?

Foreign buyers back in the market

Have the cooling measures done their job in managing property prices? Foreign property buyers have held back for the last quarter,  but are now back in full force. Instead of aiming high for prime district properties, they have instead gone for cheaper options, namely suburban condominiums,

La Fiesta condominium in Sengkang.

La Fiesta condominium in Sengkang.

Foreign buyers made up 10.7 per cent of 4,884 private homes sold in Q1 of 2013. Chinese and Indonesians made up the largest numbers, followed by Malaysians. The number of Mainland Chinese buyers particularly has been on the rise once more. This could be partly due to the tightening of property buying policies in their own country.

Almost half of the 108 foreign buyers in March alone were Chinese nationals. With their strong buying power, even with the newly raised 15 per cent Additional Buyers’ Stamp Duty (ABSD), a private condominium of $1.53 million is still very much affordable in their books. One of the most popular suburban condominiums in district 19 was La Fiesta in Sengkang and in prime district 10, D’Leedon.

d'Leedon condo project on Farrer Road.

d’Leedon condo project on Farrer Road.

Before December 2011, when the ABSD was first introduced, foreign buyers made up 21.2 per cent of the total home sales. By the first quarter of 2012, the proportion has dropped to 5.7 per cent. The current level is at 10.7 per cent. Jones Lang LaSalle Singapore research director Ong Teck Hui has said that Singaporean investors seemed to be more affected by the cooling measures than PRs and foreigners.

In short, the additional buyers’ stamp duty has merely herded the buying crowd in another direction. Are they competing with local buyers? If there are sufficient private homes to go around, then market forces will keep the real estate machine chugging on its own. Does this answer what Singaporeans have been asking for in terms of housing prices and supply?

The case of the shrinking condominiums

Unit size, that is. It used to be that a one-bedder in 2008 measured an average of 678 to 947 sq ft. From 2010, they measured 538 to 678 sq ft. When the minimum becomes the maximum, it may be the sign of times.

 

One of the latest new properties offered - Natura condominium at Hillview Terrace.

Natura condominium at Hillview Terrace.

Property developers have been shrinking condominium sizes to make them fit into the pockets of buyers. And these are not restricted by area, across the board, homes are getting smaller. Shoebox apartments have been the focus these past couple of years, but now, it’s not only the studio apartments which are put under the microscope. Two and three-bedroom units have also been getting the slice. For example, a three-bedder in Natura at Hillview Terrace measures 635 sq ft, that’s even smaller than the smallest one-bedder unit launched in 2008. And before 2008, the same would have gotten you 1,500 sq ft.

As Singapore’s population rises, the challenge to contain all in livable conditions fall not only in the hands of the Government, but also on private developers. High land costs, labour costs, material costs have all contributed to the situation. It’s either higher prices or smaller spaces. Or both. But does this mean buyers now pay less? As competition increase, property developers find themselves fighting for the same crowd of buyers, and trying to put out products which fit into their price points.

Midtown Condominium at Hougang.

Midtown Condominium at Hougang.

Most buyers are willing to fork out $1.5 million for their first or second home, especially since loan limits have been tightened in the most recent round of property curbs. But experts are less concerned about the small size of shoebox apartments than two and three-bedders. They have voiced their concern that while it is reasonable for one person to live in a 500 sq ft studio space, it may not be so for small families to live within 600 to 700 sq ft. And these not only apply to private condos, but also to ECs (executive condominiums).

The trend looks set to continue, but is there any more space left to shrink? What quantifies “livable” space and are Singaporeans getting the quality of life they need?

100% condo sales few and far in between

Rare are the new condominium launches which see a “Fully sold” sign plastered on their boards within a few months of launch. Though most may eventually reach a 100% sale status, they are taking longer to do so. This depends on the location of the property and the number of units available for sale, of course, but so far, the top scorer has been Seasuites in Pasir Panjang Road, at 85 per cent of its 52 units, with an average psf price of $1,650.

Seasuites condominium in Pasir Panjang.

Seasuites condominium in Pasir Panjang.

A strong runner-up in the race is Urban Vista in Tanah Merah. Considering it just launched mid-March, this 582 unit condominium project is selling exceedingly well with 77 per cent already sold. Average prices are $1,350 psf. March’s other big launch, D’Nest in Pasir Ris also sold a cool 76 per cent of its 912 units at $920 psf.

Private condominiums are still selling well, with new trumping resale. But there are 9 more months left of the year, and what will keep or halt the sale momentum? Chances are new properties which check the right boxes will win the race:

1. Good location
2. Competitive pricing
3. Comparison of other residential projects nearby

In 2012, most of the properties which reached a fully sold status were launched in the early part of the year, and most of them were one or two-bedders or studio apartments. Will 2013 see a reprise of last year? Or will the cooling measures change it up?

Executive Condominiums back in the fray

As the price gap between ECs and private condominiums continue to widen, more buyers are choosing the former. Why? It may not be because they are unable to afford a private condominium, but for the same price, they get more space in an executive condo. If you have $800,000 to spare, you can either get a 780 sq ft private condominium unit, or a 1, 100 sq ft EC unit almost the size of a 5-room HDB flat.

Heron Bay Executive Condominium in Upper Serangoon View.

Heron Bay Executive Condominium in Upper Serangoon View.

Current prices for private condominiums are above $1,000 psf. For ECs, they hover around $538 to $809 psf. At The Topiary in Fernvale, 185 EC units were sold for between $600 and $809 psf. Waterbay in Punggol went for slightly less at $538 and $73 psf. Heron Bay sold between $612 and $809 psf.

And what you get in an executive condominium may not necessarily be lesser than a private apartment. Ground-floot units, for example, at Heron Bay EC in Upper Serangoon have private pools with Jacuzzis. Sky terraces and many other fancy facilities are increasing the potential value and attractiveness of these public-private housing hybrids.

Topiary Executive Condominium in Fernvale.

Topiary Executive Condominium in Fernvale.

And not forgetting that ECs can be sold in the private property market after their Minimum Occupation Period of 5 years, why wouldn’t the competition in this sector be tough?The Government has already placed some  restrictions earlier this year, capping the size of EC units to 1, 722 sq ft and limiting the sale of Dual-key apartments (units with separate entrances) to multi-generational families. But will this be enough? Is this market something to watch for and will control be necessary? Will this trend result in an eventual increase the prices of executive condominiums or will it decrease the price of private condos?

Suburban location but Prime rental prices.

Even though these apartments and flats are not in the prime central locations, they are holding their own in terms of home rental prices.

Yishun Emerald condominium.

Yishun Emerald condominium.

Mass market private condominiums, especially those in the East and North-east districts are in demand and thus driving prices up. Median monthly rents rose 2.9 per cent to $3.13 psf in Q4 of 2012. And as expected, homes close to MRT stations and near international schools fair better with tenants. And smaller homes, because of their higher psf prices, faired exceedingly well. Apartments in District 28 (Yio Chu Kang and Seletar), have been rising particularly fast to the current $3, 400 per month. Homes in District 21 and 19 performed equally well.

Smaller-size units, and perhaps shoebox apartments, were the top sellers in January and from the way more HBD upgraders are snapping up units here, they may be this year’s hot property. With the government’s tightening noose on immigration policies, HDB flat rentals may suffer first, since new immigrants will tend to fall in the PMEB category of professionals, managers, executives and technicians and their families. Singles looking to venture into the property market also make up a large part of the pool of suburban small apartment buyers.

Savills Singapore reseach head Alan Cheong has observed that most renters have a budget of $2500 to $4000 per month and suburban shoebox units or three-bedders fit right into their wallets. Older apartments with a larger floor space may be priced at the same range as newer but smaller flats.

No demand for High-end private apartments

Not yet. But the supply is still going strong.

For the last quarter of 2012 and perhaps even the first quarter of this year, the luxury apartment market is seeing depressed prices, with many more completed but yet unsold. The global financial crisis and string of cooling measures have left in their wake almost 500 completed but unsold units in the prime districts of 9, 10 and 11 alone, according to R’ST Research‘s analysis.

Hamilton Scotts

Hamilton Scotts

These include:

Treasure on Balmoral

Treasure on Balmoral

Slightly less than half of the 9, 295 non-landed upmarket homes in-the-making are currently unsold. Reports have shown that luxury home prices dropped 5.6 per cent in 2012. The high for these type of properties was in 2007, but property analysts figured this drop in price was merely a matter of time, since the sky-high prices were most likely not firm in property fundamentals. In fact, prices are expected to correct further this year as older luxury properties enter the resale market and are likely to compete with new ones in the vicinity.

The cooling measures seem to have impacted this market strongly, but is this what is really helpful to Singapore’s real estate industry and what have the cooling measures really done? Have they merely herded buyers from one market into another?