Signs of property market bottoming out?  

Though the vacancy rates of private residential properties are currently 1.4 percent higher in Q2 and at a 16-year record high, and property prices 9.4 percent lower than the 2013 peak, property analysts remain positive about the outlook as these could be signs that the property market is reaching the bottom of its cycle.

7478d455d05b4f2aa26fd1e5a8ce7bd2There were 30,310 vacant private homes in the second quarter, that is 5,391 units more than in Q1. As the number of completed properties rise, with almost 11,400 new units entering the market in the first half of 2016, the rates are seemingly modest. Property prices have also been stabilizing, and as long as interest rates remain at their current level, most households will be likely to be able to hold on to their properties over the down season.

More property buyers are now making home purchases for their own use instead of pure investment purposes and many are taking the opportunity to seal deals during this quieter time. In a year-on-year comparison, sales volume has risen 11 per cent and the luxury property market in particular is enjoying a spike in buying interest as prices have fallen sufficiently, luring buyers back into the high-end property market.

 

 

 

Luxury property market heats up 

After the market lull in the past couple of years, buyers are once again picking off choice luxury units in the prime residential property sector.

ArdmoreIIIPrices in this segment have gradually become more competitive over the last year or so and sales volume has increased, partly due to this change. For example, in the first half of 2016 alone, 131 apartments priced above $5 million were sold. Only 166 similar units were sold in the entire 2015.

Investors are favoring Singapore properties they match up well against those in other global cities such as New York and London. Property analysts say most investors are still Singaporeans, though  Malaysians, Indonesians and Chinese continue to feature strongly in the investor pool as they see the value of properties here and are not deterred by the currency fluctuations.

An upcoming luxury development is the 99-year leasehold Victoria Park Villas by CapitaLand which consists of 3 bungalows and 106 semi-detached houses starting from $4.3million. In better times, these houses could have cost up to $6 million. Other high-end units currently in the market include those at Gramercy Park, OUE Twin Peaks and Ardmore Three.

Spain – Holiday spot or potential gold mine? 

How does an apartment or a house in the suburbs of Barcelona or Madrid sound? More foreign investors are going into the Spanish property market, despite the political uncertainty without having had a new government for 7 months now. There has been a recent increase in building permits which could be an indicator of a property boom in the near future.

1089_XA77-3924_3_2016071905520431250Though there was a peak of real estate activity in 2007, most of the properties were in remote areas or urban fringes which did not garner as much interest as expected. That left almost half a million new homes empty . This time round, the popular properties are luxury apartments  and middle-class homes in the middle ain cities and regions with a strong industrial influence.

Many leading real estate developers have been buying up land banks in regions where demand for property is high, such as the Basque country, Madrid and Barcelona. Spain is 4th on a list, compiled by PWC, of European cities with property markets offering the best prospects.

1097_0_foto_20160719174440302_945856908925211Prices of properties go from as high as 8 million euros on an upmarket apartment in Madrid’s shopping Boulevard Serrano, or a 10,000 euros per square metre unit with swimming pool and spa which despite its price tag, is only a mere 10% of a similar unit in London. The immense potential for growth is apparent to investors, and despite the Brexit vote dragging down the pound, the major cities in Spain will still have their clout with savvy investors.

Singapore home prices remain muted

As long as the property cooling measures are here to stay and global economics remain shaky, home prices may hover at the current levels.

ArdmoreIIIAnd as the government continues to roll out more new build-to-order (BTO) flats while keeping the loan ratio capped at 30 per cent, demand for resale HDB flats may continue its lacklustre run. Although there was a 0.1 per cent rise in HDB prices in Q2, prices were mainly flat and private home prices dipped further by 0.4 per cent, that is following a 0.7 per cent fall in Q1. Some property players have viewed the private property market as possibly reaching the bottom of the cycle.

Since the last market peak in 2013, HDB and private home prices are now 9.8 per cent and 9.4 per cent lower respectively. There have been some signs of recovery in Q2 as private property prices in the core central region (CCR) rose 0.2 per cent. Developers have also been actively seeking out sales by offering creative payment schemes and keeping sales volume to a respectable level.

Considering the average length of a property lull being 8.4 quarters, this cycle may already have reached the end of its run. Will a prolonged cycle mean an even sharper and more drastic rebound when the measures are loosened? How will the market then respond to that and will there be any drawbacks?

Completed private home prices fall further

Completed resale private non-landed property prices have dipped further in May, following a slight increase the month before. The muted sales could have also been a reflex response to the recent Brexit vote though in the long term, property analysts are not expecting the fallout to be too drastic.

FulcrumPrice decline of apartments in the central region were the lowest, with prices falling only 0.5 per cent last month, almost evening out with the 0.4 per cent rise in April. Properties here have the location advantage and will be unlikely to see a sudden price depression anytime soon. Astute buyers are however still out for the hunt and are likely to look towards properties in this areas for good deals. In the current market, buyers who lack holding power may find themselves having to let go of their properties within a time period, and may be more open to price negotiations.

As more new properties were launched in the last couple of months, activity from this segment may have also stimulated the resale private property sector and the spillover effect of positive market sentiments could have caused a slight blip in April’s price rise. Small apartments below 506 sq ft saw the steepest fall of 1.1 per cent as competition in the rental market heats up and prices continue to fall with high supply against lower demand.

 

River Valley’s properties peak

Just off the city centre, with a quiet and exclusive environment and a variety of hip and happening eateries, retail and office housed in quaint heritage buildings nearby, River Valley has always been a property hotspot for expatriates and young professionals.

MartinPlaceResidencesSo it probably comes as no surprise that developers were quick to bid, fast and furiously, on a GLS (government land sales) site in its vicinity. With the highest bid coming from Guocoland at $595.1 million or $1, 239 psf for the Martin Place plot which is situated near the upcoming Great World MRT station and promises to yield as many as 450 homes, this could be one of the highest bids for a land plot, aside from those on Sentosa. In January this year, a Siglap road condominium site was sold for $624.2million but that could yield up to 900 units, twice the number of units the Martin Place plot is capped at.

Confidence was likely to have been boosted by strong sales from the recent Cairnhill Nine launch. The area is peppered with a wide variety of private properties, including shophouses, older resale condominiums, newer developments and upcoming residential projects. Demand continues to be strong as rental prices become more competitive. Sales volume has always been on the rise, with 86 units sold in May this year, compared to the 15 units monthly average in 2015. Developers’ response to this land sale could be a positive indication of market confidence in recovery.

 

The Brexit effect on London home prices

While Europe is astir after the Brexit vote, how have or will the property market in the United Kingdom respond? Prior to the vote, London home prices were already rising with the average at a considerable £310,500 or S$611,000. That was about 5.5 per cent higher in May this year compared to the same month last year.

LondonPropertyPrices have however fell 0.2 per cent with effect from a new property-tax regulations in place. An increase in taxes have helped first-time buyers get ahead of landlords who have had the upped hand in the leasing market for sometime. In the breathless weeks before the EU vote, home sales and prices were understandably suppressed as fewer property owners were putting their properties on the market due to the uncertainties. Property analysts hoping for a remain vote were hoping for the vote to help put things back to normal. But now, the future is murky, and seems it will be so for sometime more as the country struggles to make sense of the vote and how to move on henceforth.

Properties in London may take the largest hit as international investors are the top buyers of properties in this borough. Home prices of prime central London properties have already fallen by half but the fall of the sterling may spur some investors to make use of the opportunity to pick up some good deals.

 

 

 

The true value of Hong Kong homes?

Property prices in Hong Kong are at a record high, and there are no signs of it letting up anytime soon. Or does there?

From the number of foreclosures on properties surging to a 5-year high, buyers seem to be struggling to cope with high-interest home loans, almost impossible property prices and a weakening economy. Although a property bubble has yet to occur, cracks in the market seem to be showing as the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) points to a growing number of homes whose value are lower than their original price tag.

Park yoho venezia Hong Kong propertyBy the end of 2016’s first quarter, 1,432 homes were already under the foreclosure hammer, and their value – a whooping HK$4.9 million (S$852.5 million). As the Hong Kong government has a strictly-regulated banking system and with 7 rounds of property cooling measures already in place, home buyers and investors have been borrowing from unregulated sources such finance firms and real estate developers, some up to 95 per cent.

Analysts are concerned that the household debt is at 70 per cent and more investors and home owners have been using their properties are collateral for other transactions such as stock trading. As the global and local economy shake, they find themselves in deep hot water. What will the near future hold for Hong Kong’s property market? Is a bubble brewing and is there a danger of the 2008 recession?