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24 Apr

Foreign buyers back in the market

Have the cooling measures done their job in managing property prices? Foreign property buyers have held back for the last quarter,  but are now back in full force. Instead of aiming high for prime district properties, they have instead gone for cheaper options, namely suburban condominiums,

La Fiesta condominium in Sengkang.

La Fiesta condominium in Sengkang.

Foreign buyers made up 10.7 per cent of 4,884 private homes sold in Q1 of 2013. Chinese and Indonesians made up the largest numbers, followed by Malaysians. The number of Mainland Chinese buyers particularly has been on the rise once more. This could be partly due to the tightening of property buying policies in their own country.

Almost half of the 108 foreign buyers in March alone were Chinese nationals. With their strong buying power, even with the newly raised 15 per cent Additional Buyers’ Stamp Duty (ABSD), a private condominium of $1.53 million is still very much affordable in their books. One of the most popular suburban condominiums in district 19 was La Fiesta in Sengkang and in prime district 10, D’Leedon.

d'Leedon condo project on Farrer Road.

d’Leedon condo project on Farrer Road.

Before December 2011, when the ABSD was first introduced, foreign buyers made up 21.2 per cent of the total home sales. By the first quarter of 2012, the proportion has dropped to 5.7 per cent. The current level is at 10.7 per cent. Jones Lang LaSalle Singapore research director Ong Teck Hui has said that Singaporean investors seemed to be more affected by the cooling measures than PRs and foreigners.

In short, the additional buyers’ stamp duty has merely herded the buying crowd in another direction. Are they competing with local buyers? If there are sufficient private homes to go around, then market forces will keep the real estate machine chugging on its own. Does this answer what Singaporeans have been asking for in terms of housing prices and supply?

16 Apr

New private homes sales may match 2012′s high

D'nest condominium.

D’nest condominium.

If anything, worries about the property cooling measures affecting the property market in a big way should be allayed, for now, by the way Q1′s new homes sales figures go. March’s sales gave it a big boost, as buyers returned after the Chinese New year  lull in February. Many buyers were first-timers, and out of the 5,564 units launched in Q1, almost all (5,533  units) were sold.

Property developers had kept launches out of the market in February, and the release of numerous new properties near MRT stations in March could have made up for the pent up demand from buyers who flooded the showflats and new property launches in March, snapping up units in new suburban condominiums such as D’Nest, Urban Vista, Bartley Ridge and Sennett Residence.

According to the Urban Redevelopment Authority’s (URA) data of new home sales, March alone saw 2,793 units sold, breaking the previous record of 2,772 in July 2009. It goes to show that despite the cooling measures, demand is well ahead in the race to balance property prices and inflation at large.

Shoebox apartments were top sellers for HDB upgraders. Seen here is the Bartley Ridge condominium.

Shoebox apartments were top sellers for HDB upgraders. Seen here is the Bartley Ridge condominium.

Property analysts are however not expecting similar sales numbers this month, since March’s bumper crop of new units would have satisfied the pent up demand from previous months. D’Nest emerged the clear winner with 699 units of its 912 units sold. Once again, location and proximity to transport were cited as top reasons for great sales.

12 Mar

New HDB flats 30% cheaper

National MInister Khaw Boon Wan has pledged last Friday to keep prices new HDB flats 30 per cent cheaper, keeping to their promise to help Singaporeans own a home.

Their aim? To make new HDB flats affordable once again, before the property bull run which sped well ahead since 2005, to have one in a non-mature estate paid off within “four years of salary”.  Current HDB flat prices are at about “5.5 years of salary”.

HDB Flats THinkStockThe Government’s new moves and announcements are clear indications that they plan to play an active part in Singapore’s real estate situation, at least in providing “alternative housing options”. Beyond price stabilisation, Mr Khaw has said that bringing down BTO flat prices are also part of the property cooling measures.

He has also raised a series of questions pertaining to Singapore’s long term housing plans:

  1. Should Housing Board flats continue to be an appreciating asset or return to being treated simply as a social need?
  2. Should the HDB build to meet sophisticated tastes or go back to the basics?
  3. How to keep flats affordable while continuing to encourage couples to be prudent?
  4. How should public housing respond to the needs of an ageing population?
Tampines Green Forest BTO Flats. Photo by HDB.

Tampines Green Forest BTO Flats. Photo by HDB.

There is still the issue of whether these low starting prices of HDB flats will be kept around the same affordable rates or will resale HDB flats continue their flight to higher heights. This may only be revealed in 10 to 15 years’ time but how immigration and housing policies are structured may very well be the rudder that steers the ship. To troubled waters or calm ones. Those at the helm will have an important role to play. And they have to act now.

5 Mar

Will Singapore homes ever be truly ‘affordable”?

Not for some time yet, according to Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam.

Waterfront living in Sentosa. Is this the area for expansion in SIngapore's future?

Waterfront living in Sentosa. Is this the area for expansion in SIngapore’s future?

Stuck in the part of the property cycle where home prices run high, all are in wait to see if they run even higher. The Government is doing all they can to cool the market. The previous seven round of property cooling measures since 2009 will attest to that. But Singapore’s real estate market still stands for some price correction before it could get moving and complete the cycle it is apparently in.

It will not amaze most Singaporeans to know that housing prices have risen sharply in the past four years. 30 per cent is a huge leap. In the time where the global economy struggles to right itself from its humpty-dumpty fall, Singapore’s economic growth, lower interest rates and strong capital flow has kept the property market buoyant.

Is the private property market quietening? Image courtesy of Singapore Tourism Board

When will homes truly be affordable for the average Singaporean? Image courtesy of Singapore Tourism Board

Even though the cooling measures may have slowed the rate of increase of home prices, the pricing rise is still significant. We return once again to the question of whether the Government should be responsible for keeping market prices low or simply stall the rise in prices, which is inevitable and should be left to market forces to dictate.

Mr Thaman said as ‘Singapore’s highly open economy lives by being global and regional, the Government’s key priority is to raise productivity to a new level”, since raising incomes for the average person and for the median household is at the top of their to-do list for now.

26 Feb

No demand for High-end private apartments

Not yet. But the supply is still going strong.

For the last quarter of 2012 and perhaps even the first quarter of this year, the luxury apartment market is seeing depressed prices, with many more completed but yet unsold. The global financial crisis and string of cooling measures have left in their wake almost 500 completed but unsold units in the prime districts of 9, 10 and 11 alone, according to R’ST Research‘s analysis.

Hamilton Scotts

Hamilton Scotts

These include:

Treasure on Balmoral

Treasure on Balmoral

Slightly less than half of the 9, 295 non-landed upmarket homes in-the-making are currently unsold. Reports have shown that luxury home prices dropped 5.6 per cent in 2012. The high for these type of properties was in 2007, but property analysts figured this drop in price was merely a matter of time, since the sky-high prices were most likely not firm in property fundamentals. In fact, prices are expected to correct further this year as older luxury properties enter the resale market and are likely to compete with new ones in the vicinity.

The cooling measures seem to have impacted this market strongly, but is this what is really helpful to Singapore’s real estate industry and what have the cooling measures really done? Have they merely herded buyers from one market into another?

7 Feb

Property developers discounts may be cut

If you’re waiting to see if the developer of your property of choice might dangle discounts to counter the recent cooling measures, you might have to reconsider. The authorities have caught on to property developers‘ tactics of offering discounts as a means to entice customers to buy new properties, especially since the cooling measures have taken a huge chunk out of the business.
House

But fear not, only the indirect discounts are under review by the Urban Redevelopment Authority. These mostly refer to the rebates and vouchers that the buyer receives only after purchasing the property. Since these are not reflected in the upfront price which the buyer pays, it may make the cooling measures seem ineffective, which also means URA’s quarterly price index based on caveats lodged might not be a true reflection of the market situation.

Property developers on the other hand tend to lean towards indirect discounts as this helps placate early buyers who may not be happy that they had gotten the raw end of the deal. Keeping the upfront price high also helps to keep prices high all around.

Other ways which developers have been trying to help buyers out are through the partial or full absorption of the Additional Buyers Stamp Duty (ABSD) which has been increased in the most recent round of measures. The frequency and fervency of this practice might be what the authorities are watching as it negates the effect of the property measures.

Another concern is also that the true value of the property needs to be conveyed truthfully to the home buyer, but with the discounts and cuts, it might not be the case and it might only confuse consumers. Not forgetting that home loans are based on the property value, thus might buyers be paying more in the end through bank loan interests for a higher priced property?

So are the cooling measures truly working? If it seems that discounts are offered more frequently, then it might be.

30 Jan

Steep rise in Resale HDB Flat COV

The storm that brewed in the public housing market last quarter came in the form of COV prices. Rising from $45, 000 to as much as $67,800 in popular mature estates such as Toa Payoh and Tampines, January’s cooling measures may just have been the breakwater to calm the waves. The cooling measures have only just been implemented, and the first three weeks of 2013 saw steady median COVs and demand for resale HDB flats.

Mirage new HDB BTO Flats in Choa Chu Kang.

Mirage new HDB BTO Flats in Choa Chu Kang.

Whether these price waves will crash and subside or overtake the cooling measures, may be dependent on the supply of flats as well as whether there are changes in the eligibility of singles in applying for new HDB flats. Although National Development Minister Khaw Boon Wan has mentioned that this year may be the year rules change, it still awaits implementation.

The lack of supply of resale HDB flats is also partly due to the fact that most HDB owners see their flats as a good source of rental income, and as long as that option is open, and the rental demand is high, they may be unwilling to forego their HDB flats, thus decreasing the number of available resale flats in the market.

Some reasons which may have driven buyers to look for resale HDB flats:
1. They are willing to pay for a favourable location
2. They want to move into a new home quickly
3. They are looking to upgrade within the public housing category to a bigger space

On the other side of the coin, industry analysts have brought up the point that demand for resale HDB flats are driven largely by those who are ineligible to purchase new HDB flats, mainly permanent residents (PRs) and singles. Does this mean then that these groups of buyers are actually able to afford resale HDB flats and thus there may not be a need to change things around and allow them to purchase new HDB flats? Or will a change of rulings mean lesser HDB flat owners may now benefit from the rise in value of the properties over the years? Will this largely decrease the potential pool of buyers of resale HDB flats or will the demand continue to be present, perhaps minus COV (cash-over-valuation)?

28 Jan

Property prices’ sudden growth in Q4

Perhaps the property cooling measures are timely after all. What with the fourth quarter registering a sudden growth after a few months of slower movement.

Is the private property market quietening? Image courtesy of Singapore Tourism Board

Is the private property market really going to slow down? Image courtesy of Singapore Tourism Board

So in general, prices are still high, whatever dip in prices in the few months just before the end of 2012 were corrected by prices shooting up again, rounding off the year with a record-breaking run. The strong showing were in the resale HDB flat market, with a rise of 2.5 per cent and COV (cash-over-valuation) price increases, in particular for executive condominiums (ECs). The suburban private property market also saw equally strong demand, with prices up 3.8 per cent.

Developers, having paid high prices for their land bids, are not expected to drop their selling prices anytime soon, and their strong holding power will allow them to hold out till the market bounces back. Knight Frank research head Png Poh Soon is predicting a 5 to 7 per cent drop in high-end luxury home market this year, with a similar drop in mass market private homes prices.

Prices however, have considerably moderated over the years, ever since the first round of cooling measures rolled out in 2009. In the property boom of 2010, resale HDB flat prices rose a whooping 14 per cent; in 2011, prices rose 11 per cent; and in 2012, 6.6 per cent. The rise has slowed, but there is still a rise, nevertheless.

The interesting question will be, if prices are only allowed to go up, what will the property market be in like in say, 10 years? Will it be a case of what goes up must come down, or will more be priced out of property-ownership in the long run and put Singapore in the same league as major cities such as New York or Tokyo where renting is the way of life?

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