Resale HDB flat prices remain level

As the year moves quickly towards the middle of the second half, property sellers may be getting a little on edge about whether the property prices will fall further.

For the resale HDB market at least, property analysts are expecting prices to stabilise, with any fluctuations occurring only slightly on a month-on-month basis. Prices of HDB flats dipped slightly in July by 0.5 per cent, which is 4.3 per cent lower than July 2014. The fall in prices is still within the single digit range, and at the lower end of it, thus sellers could rest assured the boat will not rock too drastically. Most of the price drops were in the four- and five-room flats segment while prices of three-room flats remained flat.

The resale market for HDB flats seem to have taken a dive due to the bumper crop of BTO flats. Photo courtesy of Singapore Tourism Board.

Photo courtesy of Singapore Tourism Board.

Buyers looking to purchase a property within the year will still do so, and resale HDB flat prices and transaction volume looks likely to maintain at the current level for the rest of the year. The property cooling measures have taken a couple of years to take effect, and a sharp turnaround in prospects seem unlikely.

With a few more months to go before figures can be more effectively measured, property experts are nevertheless positive about the market stabilising soon.Though with a possible raising of the income ceiling which may draw buyers’ attention away from resale flats, and with the upcoming General Election in play, it could be anyone’s guess how property prices will fare by year end.

Resale property prices slide further

The private property market seems to be going the way property analysts have predicted in the beginning of the year. Over the last 6 months, prices of completed private property have fallen 1.9%. The steepest fall was in the beginning of 2014, at 3.7%. Though the decline has continued, the fall has been lighter in the quarters following.

Maysprings condoSince the implementation of the Total Debt Servicing Ratio (TDSR) in June of 2013, property prices have fallen at varying speeds over the past 2 years. A total of 42,606 new homes are expected to be ready for occupation within these couple of years and up to 96 per cent of the land sold this year are expected for future non-landed homes. It may become a tussle for prices and buyers, between new and resale properties.

As rental demand also continues to dip, prospects for the property market seems to have dimmed slightly, though select properties will still hold potential. Property experts have explained that the dip in prices in the resale market may have been due to the ability of individual to be flexible with prices. New properties which are being sold by developers have the means to stick to their guns in terms of pricing. The scale for rental supply and demand is likely to continue leaning towards the former.

Resale private homes – Slow climb up

There was a glimmer of light in the resale property market last month as prices of homes in the city fringe rose 1.1 per cent and 0.5 per cent in the suburbs. Overall private resale home prices rose 0.4 per cent.

BlueHorizonThough property analysts are not certain if prices will maintain their current level or dip even further in the later part of the year, the numbers gave at least a little hope to private property owners and sellers. While the resale market shows that it has steadied itself with a $0 T-O-X (the median transaction over X-value or a home’s market value), in the city centre district 9 which consists of Orchard Road and River Valley, more resale properties were being sold below the computer-generated  home prices dipped to an average of $55,000 below the X-value.

In district 5 of Pasir Panjang and Clementi however, the highest media T-O-X came up to $30,000; and in the Bukit Timah, Holland Road and Tanglin areas of prime district 10, the number came up to $14,000.

As the number of new properties being launched or completed rise, the prices of resale properties may face the danger of being pushed down by competition. Though location and condition of resale units may always have an upper hand. With the General Elections planned for the year ahead, prices may fluctuate with policy or economic changes. Could this year be the watershed year for the property market?

HDB resale flats – Market recovery soon?

The number of HDB resale flats which exchanged hands in the last 2 months have increased by more than 8 per cent. A sign property analysts are taking as a positive.

Photo credit: The Singapore Tourism Board.

Photo credit: The Singapore Tourism Board.

With a consecutive 2-month rise in prices, at 0.1 per cent in June and 0.2 per cent in May, the HDB resale market seems to be showing signs of bottoming out and a turn for the better may come quite soon. In the months prior, when the property cooling measures just began to take effect, it were the four- and five-room flats which suffered the biggest hit in price drops. But recent market figures seem to show that prices in these segments have risen by 0.3 and 0.5 per cent of late, followed by a 0.7 per cent in executive flats (EC) prices as well. The three-room HDB flats segment however have seen a 0.2 per cent fall in prices.

In the year ahead, as the government reduces the supply of new BTO flats, buyers may have to turn to the resale market instead, which may in turn positively affect the number of sales and prices. However, the rebound, though happening, may be slow as buyers may be more selective of their choice of units and there may be more put into the market as BTO flats reach completion and those who have secured a new flat may be pressured to sell within a stipulated 6-month period of getting the keys to their new units.

BTO Flats in less mature estates sold for more

Punggol Northshore, one of the latest BTO (Build-to-order) HDB flat offerings in Punggol, proved popular with young families and couples. The response may have been surprising 10 years ago, when the area was still underdeveloped and considered far-flung. But now, as the amenities have built up over the years, those who have bought units in Punggol and Sengkang in the earlier years are reaping the ripe profits.

Punggol HDB EstateMost of the resale HDB flats which sold in these 2 HDB estates have tripled their original purchase prices. Four-room flats in Sengkang once cost $205,000 but now they can sell for as much as $566,880 in average on the resale HDB flat market. The lowest recorded sale was $410,000, double its original price tag. Property analysts have placed the HDB price index at a 90-per-cent increase since the launch of the system in 2002.

Once costing buyers $178,000 at its highest in 2003, prices of these BTO flats have since appreciated over the past 10 years. Most BTO flats take 4 years to be completed, and buyers have to fulfil a 5-year MOP (minimum occupation period) before being allowed to list their flat in the resale market.

It was once thought that older flats in mature estates were able to fetch higher prices, but these newer BTO flats are beating them at their odds; mostly due to the young age of the flats which means they will also be in relatively better condition, have more years left in their lease, and possess a higher potential for growth in terms of property prices once the less mature township is developed.

Private resale home prices stabilising

With minimal fall in prices over the previous couple of quarters, could this be a sign that resale private property prices are stabilising? Could buyers be getting used to the current home prices and are coming back to pick up deals before a possible rise? Will the predictions of a 4 to 8 per cent drop in property prices this year continue on its track or will buyers buck the trend?

Botanique@BartleyThe NUS Singapore Residential Price Index (SRPI) has indicated a 2.2 per cent fall in resale condominium prices over the last 12 months. But since the first quarter of 2015, the fall has been more gradual and marginal, considering the expected 5 per cent year-on-year fall in prices per month in the last quarter of 2014. The next couple of months could be the watershed for the property market. A slow and small drop in prices could indicate a possible bottoming out of the market.

Part of the reason for last month’s 0.1 per cent fall in April could also be due to the high transaction volume. The recent new property launches of Botanique at Bartley and Northpark Residences may also have had a trickle-down effect on the resale market, in particular properties in the proximity of these 2 launches. Another promising bit of news is the 0.4 per cent rise in the prices of small apartment units up to 506 sq ft. A much untested market, particularly in the suburbs, as more commercial businesses move out of the central region and into the heartlands, the demand for these units may change in the next few years.

Resale private property prices dipped in April

Could it be that the competition from new properties are finally kicking in? Besides the property cooling measures such as loan limits and raised stamp duties, are buyers remaining cautious this year as they watch and wait?

NorthparkResidences2NorthparkResidences2Property analysts are expecting the property prices to remain mostly stable for the rest of the year, with buyers and investors beginning to suss out good deals and snapping up units. Further property cooling measures seem unlikely and any shifts in policy would probably be in favour of sellers. It goes without saying, this year might be the year of the buyer, but the next would be anyone’s guess.

In April, figures showed that buyers are no longer underpaying for properties and are purchasing them at market value. The biggest rebound came in District 16. The number of resale transactions, despite all the news about property prices and transactions falling, have been growing overall on a year-on-year basis. That itself is promising news for the industry and investors.

Thus the slight drop in resale private non-landed properties last month could be due to new launches such as that of Northpark Residences in Yishun. The relationship between new and resale, private properties and HDB flats, will always be symbiotic. But without a doubt, all will be tied to global and domestic economies and policy changes.

 

More favour fixed home loan rates

With the property market still proving a little dicey this year, more buyers are opting for fixed home rates in the wake of possible higher interest rates this year.

Backed by the strengthening US Dollar, and the Sibor (Singapore Interbank Offered Rate) and Swap Offer Rate at their highest in five years; home buyers are understandably iffy about the financial difficulties they might eventually face. The three-month Sibor rate has reached 1 per cent last week, comparable to the boom in 2008.

Tropika East private property in district 14.

Tropika East private property in district 14.

Fixed home loan rates are locked in for a specific period of time (usually two to five years) and banks and brokers alike are reporting up to 80 per cent of their clientele showing interest and taking up fixed rates. Though the rates may be higher, the risk of fluctuating interest rates are reduced. It all takes detailed financial planning and a good understanding of one’s capabilities. How soon do you estimate being able to pay of bulk of your loan? How financially flexible do you need to be?

Location and rental potential seems to have trumped floor area and will properties with a lower total quantum continue to take the front of the race as the market leader?